Some say Catholicism's spread may end trend; others don't foresee it

03:34 PM MST on Saturday, April 2, 2005

By SUSAN HOGAN/ALBACH / The Dallas Morning News

Could the Catholic Church be on the brink of electing its first non-European pope in 1,500 years? Chances are better than ever before in history, Vatican experts said.

Nearly two-thirds of Catholics lived in Europe in 1900. Now, three-fourths of the world's 1 billion Catholics reside elsewhere.

A non-European pope is "absolutely a possibility," said Philip Jenkins, a religion scholar at Pennsylvania State University. "If it happens, it's more likely to be a cardinal from Latin America than Africa because there are more cardinals there."

Pope John Paul II, died Saturday. He was 84.

The church requires nine days of public mourning. The conclave of cardinals who will elect a successor must convene within 20 days. Only those under age 80 are eligible to vote.

The next pope will be chosen from among more than 100 cardinals. Nearly 17 percent hail from Latin America, 10 percent from Asia, 11 percent from North America and 9 percent from Africa.

But almost half come from Europe, which is why some scholars remain convinced that the next pope, like most of his predecessors, will be a European.

Dr. Gerald Fogarty of the University of Virginia said African and Latin American cardinals are too distracted by issues at home to take on global leadership.

"It's going to be another Italian," he said. "The time isn't right yet for an African or Latin American pope. Those cardinals aren't as well-known as the Europeans, so they would have a hard time garnering enough votes."

John Paul was elected largely because of the support of Latin American cardinals, who didn't want another Italian. The Polish native became the first non-Italian pontiff in 455 years.

He continued down the path begun by Pope Pius XII in the 1930s to give the Roman Curia more of an international flavor. John Paul became the first pope to travel to more than 100 countries, and he appointed more cardinals from non-European countries than anyone before him.

"Because of Pope John Paul's travels, the papacy is more international than ever before," said Chester Gillis, a papal expert at Georgetown University. "With that kind of global presence, Italians are no longer shoo-ins to be elected pope."

No Latin American has ever been pope. At least two popes in the early church were African: Victor I (189-198) and Gelasius I (492-496). Scholars disagree on whether Miliades I (311-314) was African or Italian.

Breaking tradition last time to elect a Polish pope has paved the way for a non-European, Dr. Gillis said. Top contenders from outside the European continent are thought to include Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria and Oscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiago of Honduras.

"The fact that they are mentioned so much probably means they won't get it," Dr. Gillis said. "That's usually how these things work."

Also believed to be among the frontrunners: Cardinal Dario Castrillón Hoyas of Columbia and Cardinal Cláudio Hummes of Brazil. And, among the Europeans: Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re of Italy and Cardinal Godfried Danneels of Belgium.

Americans aren't considered contenders because many cardinals perceive the U.S. church as too liberal. Others don't want the Vatican to appear aligned with a global superpower.

The election is guided by 800-year-old rules, which have been modified more than 70 times. John Paul last altered the rules in 1996, with this document: Universi Dominici Gregis ("On the Vacancy of the Apostolic See and the Election of the Roman Pontiff").

Under the new rules, a simple majority would decide the outcome if no pope has been chosen after several ballots. The election of a pope has usually required a two-thirds majority.

The Rev. Thomas Reese, editor of the Catholic magazine America and the author of a book on the Vatican, said the new rules give the conservative majority among the cardinals little incentive to compromise as long as one of its candidates has a strong showing in the early ballots.

"Once a candidate emerges with majority support, his backers will just wait it out until the majority vote rules," he said.

The Rev. Richard McBrien, a papal expert at the University of Notre Dame said such a ploy is unlikely.

"There would be intense resentment toward such a group as soon as its tactics became obvious," he said. "Its candidate would suffer accordingly."

The process will be carried out behind closed doors. Traditionally, any potential candidate who appears to be overtly politicking quickly finds himself out of the running.

"One of the virtues prized in a pope is humility, not ambition," Father Reese said.

But make no mistake, behind the scenes, the cardinal-electors will be comparing notes over coffee, at dinner and in elevators as to who among them should head the world's largest Christian body.

"The normal way it works is that your friends do all your campaigning for you," Father Reese said. "They tell the other cardinals what a good pope you would be. All you need to do is look papal."

Because John Paul appointed most of the electors, many historians expect the next pope to share his conservative world view. Historically, however, voting cardinals look for someone with strengths in the areas of the previous pope's weaknesses.

In 1958, cardinals elected Pope John XXIII -- known for his collaborative, pastoral style -- to succeed Pope Pius XII, an authoritarian ruler who once said, "I don't want collaborators, only people who can execute my orders."

John Paul's election came as a surprise. He wasn't on most short lists of viable candidates. But after a deadlock, the factions compromised and he emerged as the favored choice.

He was 58 when elected and served one of the longest terms ever. Some experts predict that this time, the cardinals will elect an older pope in hopes of ensuring a much shorter papacy.

"Traditionally, after a long-term pope, you have a short-term pope," Dr. Fogarty said.

On the other hand, Father Reese said, because John Paul was so sickly in his final years, many cardinals will opt for a younger man.

"Would you want an elderly, sick pope as the face of the papacy at the beginning of the 21st century?" he asked.

The last lengthy papacy was that of Pope Leo XIII, who died in 1903 after serving 25 years -- long enough to cause one cardinal to groan, "We elected a Holy Father, not an eternal Father."

The cardinals will take an oath of secrecy regarding their deliberations and voting. The conclave will meet in the Sistine Chapel, and the cardinals will be cut off from the world until their work is ended. Vatican tourists will not be allowed to visit the chapel. It will be regularly swept for bugging devices.

The lockdown is designed to ensure secrecy and hurry the election process. In the early church, cardinals sometimes debated months, even years, before choosing a new pope. (Under present custom, if no one is elected within nine days, the cardinals may break for a day of prayer before resuming.)

The longest conclave in history ended in 1210, after nearly three years. Pope Gregory X emerged the victor and immediately issued new rules designed to speed up the conclaves. If a pope wasn't elected in three days, the cardinals' meals were cut back. After five days, they would get only bread, water and wine -- a decree that quickly faded.

During many past conclaves, cardinals slept on cots in the Apostolic Palace, the complex that houses the papal apartment. This time, they'll stay in a $20 million hotel that John Paul had constructed on the Vatican grounds.

The hotel is 36 1/2 football fields from the Sistine Chapel. This means that for the first time in recent history, the cardinals will be visible to the public at least twice daily. Extra precautions are being taken to guard against any communication with them.

"There will be certain key cardinals who will hold the key to large blocs of votes," Father McBrien said. "They will be able to influence the many cardinals who will not have already made up their minds."

They'll vote by secret ballot on the afternoon of the conclave's first day, then twice each morning and once each afternoon until a new pope is chosen. Each cardinal is given a paper ballot on which is written: "Eligo in suumum pontificem," Latin for, "I elect as supreme pontiff."

One by one, they write down a name, fold the ballot, walk to the altar and hold the ballot aloft before dropping it into a receptacle. The votes are counted by the Vatican's camerlengo, or chamberlain, and his three assistants, all cardinals.

Each of the assistants reads the name privately, then aloud, before writing it on a tally sheet and passing it to the next assistant. The third assistant runs a needle and thread through the ballots to join them together.

After each count, the ballots are burned in a small stove. If the necessary majority isn't achieved, chemicals are burned with the ballots, producing a dark smoke to let the crowd assembled in St. Peter's Square know that a pope has not been elected.

When a pope is chosen, chemicals are added to the burning ballots to produce white smoke.

Vatican protocol dictates that the dean of the College of Cardinals asks whether the pope-elect accepts the position. The current dean is Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany, the Vatican's orthodoxy watchdog.

After accepting, the new pontiff announces the name by which he'll be known. The pope cannot choose Peter, the name of the apostle whom Catholics regard as their first pontiff.

The cardinals then pledge obedience to the new church leader, and the conclave is officially ended.

The new pope is dressed in white vestments with a white skullcap. Several sizes are made ready in advance, to ensure that something will fit.

One of the pope's first duties will be to deliver a blessing to the waiting crowd. But first, Cardinal Ratzinger will step onto the main balcony and announce to the world:

"Habemus Papam!"

(We have a new pope!)