With no groomed heir, power vacuum to bring uncertain times

09:15 AM MST on Thursday, November 11, 2004

By TOD ROBBERSON / The Dallas Morning News

LONDON – Even though Palestinian officials say they have an orderly succession plan to replace leader Yasser Arafat, Arabs and Israelis agree that a power vacuum seems inevitable whenever any four-decade, one-man dynasty suddenly comes to an end.

Many Middle Eastern analysts wonder if it will be a simple political tug-of-war or a confrontation among armed factions who are willing to use violence.

Either way, the analysts warn, Palestinians and Israelis should brace for uncertain and possibly unstable times.

"Arafat has embodied the struggle of the Palestinian people for so many years. ... It is the end of an era" dominated by a single, forceful personality, said Daud Abdullah, senior researcher at the Palestinian Return Center in London.

"It is the nature of things that there will be people jockeying for positions," he added. "There are nationalists, Islamists, Arabists – various elements who want to dominate the political scene" and who must learn to "resolve their differences politically, through dialogue, rather than resort to confrontation."

The easy part will be the immediate succession of leadership in the Palestinian Authority, the government that handles civil affairs in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, an appointee of Mr. Arafat, will continue to administer governmental affairs as before.

Matters become slightly more complicated as the leadership opens up within the Palestine Liberation Organization and its largest party, Fatah, both of which have been chaired by Mr. Arafat for four decades. For the short term, Mahmoud Abbas, the former prime minister, is in line to take over the executive committee of the PLO, which administers Palestinian affairs internationally.

Elections must be held within 60 days to fill the Palestinian presidency, which Mr. Arafat has held. There are numerous possible contenders from across the political and military spectrum.

The 75-year-old former guerrilla leader would leave behind a Palestinian nation deeply divided among militant and moderate groups, each with its own ideas of how to achieve Palestinian statehood and whether to seek accommodation or confrontation with Israel.

The dangerous extent of those divisions was underscored in late 1983 when Palestinian rebel factions in Tripoli, Lebanon, challenged Mr. Arafat for control of the PLO. A civil war developed that left thousands of casualties and Tripoli in tatters.

Mr. Arafat then moved his headquarters to Tunisia, where he developed a loyal group of deputies – nicknamed by Palestinians as the "outsiders" – who now are vying to succeed him in the leadership. But younger Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have generated their own roster of leaders – dubbed the "insiders" – who are not necessarily willing to step aside.

There are mutual accusations of corruption and cronyism between those factions, in part encouraged by Mr. Arafat, said Shmuel Sandler, a political science profession at Bar-Ilan University in Israel.

"Corruption is a part of politics in the Middle East. Arafat, I think, turned it into a system. He probably forced people to be corrupt because he could use it as a weapon to sustain his control," he said.

Added to the mixture today is the Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, a hard-line faction that favors holy war against Israel. For years, Hamas has posed the biggest obstacle to Mr. Arafat's authority, using suicide bombers to attack Israel and foil cooperation with Palestinian moderates.

To compete with Hamas for the hearts and minds of young Palestinian militants, the Fatah group unleashed the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, to carry out similar suicide attacks.

In response, two years ago, Israel – backed by Washington – refused to have any dealings with Mr. Arafat. He has spent his late years a virtual prisoner inside his Ramallah compound, refusing to leave the West Bank for fear that Israel would kill him or refuse to let him return.

When Mr. Arafat is gone, those militant factions remain poised to spoil any deal that a moderate successor might broker with Israel without their consent.

One option that analysts believe is gaining momentum is to bring the militant leaders into the negotiations so that they can share a stake in a peace deal. It is not clear, though, if the militants would join the talks.

"The Palestinians are highly polarized and militarized," said Azzam Tamimi, a Palestinian academic who heads the Institute of Islamic Political Thought in London.

"Frankly, I don't see an end to the current [stalemate] unless the Israelis move and negotiate directly with the militants, with the people close to the guns," he said. "This vacuum that will be created will put the spotlight on Hamas. ... So if you want to stop the violence, you should talk to the people who are capable of generating the violence."

Despite the polarization, Mr. Sandler said he expects Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to encounter significantly less resistance to negotiations now that Mr. Arafat is out of the picture.

"It will be easier now – easier for Sharon," he said. The combined effects of Mr. Arafat's departure and the re-election of President Bush, a staunch supporter of Mr. Sharon, have left the Palestinian leadership few other options than to negotiate peace. Even the militants, he said, have been severely weakened by a recent Israeli military crackdown in Gaza.

Without a strong personality like Mr. Arafat to keep all sides motivated, their will to continue fighting Israel could diminish, he suggested. Or the war against Israel could become sidetracked by an internal Palestinian power struggle.

"It's true, he didn't prepare heirs" to the leadership, Mr. Sandler said. "He had enough people around him" for there to be lots of leadership options. "But the only question is whether there will be a war between all these people, a violent struggle, to see who takes over."

E-mail trobberson@dallasnews.com