Since moving to Pinal County two years ago, SaddleBrooke resident Fred MacKenzie has been unimpressed with the elected officials in the area between Tucson and Phoenix.

"They're not in step with the new residents," he says. They're are also not as conservative as he'd like, particularly on tax policies.

If MacKenzie, a Republican, were one of a kind, his recent move to SaddleBrooke would be of little consequence. But MacKenzie's views matter, because the 68-year-old retired salesman from Southern California is one in a wave of new, right-leaning Pinal County residents who are doing more than buying new tract homes —they're dramatically changing the political landscape of what was once a Democratic stronghold.

For the first time in memory, the GOP is neck and neck with the Democrats in the number of registered voters in Pinal County, according to county figures.

That's caught the attention of policy makers, elected officials and political strategists who say future elections here will be more competitive, and the county will find itself playing a larger role in state and regional elections.

How dramatic is the shift?

Ten years ago, 60 percent of registered voters in Pinal County were Democrats, compared with 35 percent today. During the same period, Republicans increased their share of voters from 30 percent to 34 percent.

In just the past two years, Republicans in Pinal have picked up more than 5,000 voters, and they now trail Democrats by just 1,500 registered voters.

The new dynamics don't make Pinal County a slam dunk for either party as they find themselves virtually tied in numbers. And the bulk of the county's new voters — more than 20,000 — have registered as independents, a statewide and nationwide trend that will make elections competitive.

The parties' numbers are so close that the voter registration advantage still could swing either way.

The phenomenon hasn't gone unnoticed by the county's elected officials — all Demo-crats.

"I do think we're going to find that it's neck and neck for a while," said Laura Dean-Lytle, the Democratic county recorder who has been observing the trend. "The growth certainly changed the dynamics."

Dean-Lytle sees the growth, and the shifts, as a gain for all voters.

"We've grown into a county that now deserves some attention from statewide officials," she said. "There's a lot of voters here."

The influx of Republicans into the once-Democratic Pinal County contrasts with a statewide trend.

Both parties are losing numbers as more voters register as independents.

Population up 50% since 2000

In Pinal County, that's happening, but new voters also have a conservative streak. Many are coming from the conservative suburbs of Phoenix's East Valley, experts say, and moving, along with new residents from out of state, to the I-10 corridor. Population is up 50 percent since 2000, and it grew 13 percent just last year.

The 270,000-plus residents are a mix of old-timers and newcomers settling in housing developments from Casa Grande to Red Rock, says chief county planner David Kuhl. That causes conflict, he said.

"I think when you have people from the urban areas move to the rural areas, they have an urban set of expectations that they believe should be transformed to out here," Kuhl said. "So they do tend to clash."

A similar political shift took place in Cochise County two years ago. Alberto Gutier, a Republican political consultant, says Republicans have put great effort into building presence in Pinal County — an area that can no longer be ignored, he said.

"In the old days if you had a good presence in Pima and Maricopa, you could compete," he said. "Now you have to go into these growth counties to get the extra percentage to be elected."

With redistricting of congressional and legislative districts coming in 2012, left-leaning Pima County could increasingly share representation with Pinal County residents.

A new guard?

Growth has fueled GOP excitement about picking up county and Legislature seats, said David West, Pinal County Republican Party chairman. Democrats are optimistic they'll maintain what they have and that the surging GOP numbers will taper off.

"I don't think it's going to have any impact on us in the short run," said state Rep. Phil Lopes, a Tucson Democrat and the minority leader of the state House.

"We've got that situation in a whole bunch of districts," he said. "Our strategy will continue to be a strategy that includes winning over either those moderate Republicans or the independents. Otherwise we can't win."

And county officials say their jobs are less partisan, so addressing the needs of Republicans won't be an issue.

"I'm not worried," Dean-Lytle said. "I try very hard to run this office in a non-political sense. We're here to do a job."

But MacKenzie, the SaddleBrooke resident, predicts changes in the next few years.

"With people coming here from other parts of the country, most of them are just more conservative," he said.

● Contact reporter Daniel Scarpinato at 307-4339 or dscarpinato@azstarnet.com.