PHOENIX (AP) -- The expected yearslong duration of the state's revenue slump warrants outright elimination and cuts of some state programs, not just temporary halts proposed by Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, Republican lawmakers said Tuesday.

"Some of the fixes ... have to be more long-term," said House Majority Leader John McComish, R-Phoenix. "There is light at the end of the tunnel but we've got a long tunnel that we have to go through."

Economic forecasts presented to Arizona legislators indicate that state revenues won't return to 2006-2007 levels until after the 2011-2012 fiscal year - or more than three years from now - and that revenue growth won't return to the normal 7 percent annual growth rate until then.

Legislators got those sober assessments as they began work on erasing a projected shortfall reportedly nearing $1.6 billion in the current $9.9 billion budget.

With the recession hammering state tax collections, revenue dropped by 4.6 percent in the fiscal year that ended June 30 and is expected to drop by 9.2 percent this year, said Richard Stavneak, the Legislature's budget director.

The prospect of revenue not returning to 2006-2007 levels for years from now "demonstrates the challenge ahead of us," Stavneak said.

Napolitano last November offered lawmakers a budget-balancing proposal that included suspending some programs but large avoided outright eliminations.

Republicans had pressed for more cuts then and some said Tuesday that the new forecasts reinforced their stance.

"We have to give up on one-time cuts, on smoke-and-mirror gimmicks and have to look at programs that we can live without," said House Appropriations Committee Chairman John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills. "Reality has crashed in on the spenders. When you have no money and you borrow, you get where we're at today."

Senate minority leader Jorge Garcia, D-Tucson, said eliminating programs outright amounts to defeatism.

Suspensions would convey a sense of hope regarding the economy and recovery, Garcia said. "If we start eliminating, then what are we telling Arizona? That there's no hope?"

Earlier, Kavanagh's Senate counterpart said lawmakers must not delay fixing the current state budget's big shortfall past January.

Otherwise, more money will have been spent and it will be harder to find the necessary savings to avoid a year-end deficit, said Sen. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa. "This isn't a time to do a lot of handholding."

Prominent economists who spoke during the Finance Advisory Committee meeting offered gloomy assessments.

"'Good' is not in the equation any time in 2009, in fact in the foreseeable future as far as I can see," said private economist Elliott Pollack.

Pollack said economic activity is being dampened by banks holding onto their cash - instead of lending it - because they fear they'll need it for anticipated write-offs of bad loans already on the books.

Consumers, Pollack said, are squeezing their spending, particularly on big-ticket items like cars, big-screen televisions and furniture. "It will also get into services. so consumer spending will be weak for the foreseeable future," he added.

Marshall J. Vest, a University of Arizona economist, said the recession looks bad but that unemployment won't reach depression levels or even get as high as double-digit levels recorded in recessions in the 1970s and 1980s.

"It does indeed look ugly, the data for Arizona, but I think it's not too early to start looking for bottom," Vest said.

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