TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) -- Right guy, wrong time.

Republicans believe they have the right man in state Senate President Tim Bee to wrest Arizona's 8th Congressional District seat from Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords come Nov. 4 and return it to GOP control. But observers say his timing isn't the best.

"Bee is a really terrific candidate for the Republicans. I don't think they could have gotten a better candidate," said William Dixon, who heads the University of Arizona's political science department. "If he had run against Giffords last time when the seat was open, he might have beaten her."

That could be the key.

Bee stayed out of his party's primary two years ago after 11-term Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe announced his retirement. He then rose to power in the state Senate "within the time that the Republican brand name nationwide and within Arizona is in peril," said Rodolfo Espino, an Arizona State University assistant political science professor.

Now, Bee faces a Democratic incumbent in the November election, albeit a freshman. Neither Giffords nor Bee face opposition in the Sept. 2 primary.

"You've got to assume at this point in time that Giffords is the front-runner and has the advantage of incumbency," Dixon said. "She's certainly raised a lot of money."

Running as a centrist two years ago, Giffords swept past Republican hard-liner Randy Graf, whose tough approach to border security drew the support only of his conservative base. Many party leaders shunned him.

Kolbe's refusal to endorse Graf also helped Giffords during the 2006 race.

She could benefit this time from Kolbe's decision to step down as a Bee campaign co-chairman. Kolbe did so after Bee's decisive vote to put an initiative on Arizona's November ballot that would define marriage as being solely between a man and a woman.

Despite that vote, Bee is largely viewed as a moderate who worked with state Senate Democrats to reach a budget agreement, though it angered many hardcore conservative Republican colleagues.

On the other hand, some of Giffords' votes, such as on energy and trade, make her vulnerable, Kolbe said.

She's focused on developing renewable energy sources, especially solar power, as a key to weaning the U.S. off imported oil. But she opposes oil drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; Bee endorses both the Alaskan and offshore drilling.

Many also perceive Bee as being flexible, independent and in tune with many southeastern Arizona voters.

The 8th District includes a bit of Pinal County, all of Cochise, parts of Santa Cruz and Pima counties and hugs part of the Mexican border. It has more registered Republicans than Democrats but more than a quarter of the voters are independents.

"We have a very strong organization. I've got some of the top leaders and campaign volunteer organizations in the state," Bee said. "We're feeling very good about our position at this time."

Espino said Republicans see Giffords as not yet entrenched and still vulnerable in the traditionally Republican seat.

Many political scientists view first congressional re-election campaigns as the tough ones, Espino said, meaning "we will be seeing the Republican national party putting in more" resources against Giffords.

They have already, with President Bush appearing at a July fundraiser in Tucson. But the breakfast was closed, in a private residence, and cameras were barred to avoid picturing Bee with the popularity-challenged Bush.

Giffords, a former state legislator, said this is her toughest campaign yet. "I take the fact that he's bringing in Washington heavyweights to campaign for him as a sign of ... Republicans' objective to take this seat away."

Bee expected to reap several hundred thousand dollars from the July fundraiser on top of the nearly $700,000 in cash on hand he reported to the Federal Election Commission in late June.

But Giffords reported having $2 million, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has committed some $700,000 for television advertising if she needs it.

"I think that puts Giffords back into a little more safe territory," Espino said. "She's in really good shape there. It comes down to name recognition, and yes, well, Tim Bee was Senate president. (But) I think her name is going to go a lot further."

---

On the Net:

Gabrielle Giffords: http://www.giffordsforcongress.com/

Tim Bee: http://www.timbee.com/

© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.